Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.084575 0.098014 0.113370 0.132315 0.155200 0.182126 0.216459
2025-10-26 0.065446 0.081649 0.101909 0.129449 0.166447 0.215216 0.285699
2025-11-02 0.050996 0.067593 0.089965 0.123016 0.171812 0.243214 0.359550
2025-11-09 0.039778 0.055500 0.078104 0.114042 0.171838 0.265095 0.435849
2025-11-16 0.033299 0.048796 0.072514 0.113069 0.184230 0.311490 0.576260
2025-11-23 0.028161 0.043132 0.067384 0.111766 0.196422 0.364020 0.761829
2025-11-30 0.024515 0.039151 0.064189 0.113157 0.214735 0.438207 1.050153
2025-12-07 0.021459 0.035596 0.061021 0.113944 0.232947 0.523685 1.447595
2025-12-14 0.018439 0.031576 0.056224 0.110359 0.241070 0.592382 1.879056
2025-12-21 0.015276 0.026778 0.049045 0.099968 0.229820 0.606048 2.154138
2025-12-28 0.013660 0.024649 0.046768 0.100006 0.245666 0.711857 2.965704
2026-01-04 0.012536 0.023295 0.045839 0.103069 0.271861 0.874685 4.390599
2026-01-11 0.011375 0.021724 0.044240 0.104385 0.295285 1.056964 6.491706
2026-01-18 0.010355 0.020289 0.042680 0.105477 0.319633 1.275550 9.756701
2026-01-25 0.009276 0.018559 0.040106 0.103048 0.331280 1.456075 13.709799
2026-02-01 0.008206 0.016697 0.036873 0.097801 0.330255 1.576743 17.928457
2026-02-08 0.007569 0.015729 0.035707 0.098670 0.355415 1.898151 28.364757
2026-02-15 0.006982 0.014795 0.034457 0.098951 0.379200 2.263825 45.399747
2026-02-22 0.006543 0.014148 0.033856 0.101328 0.415592 2.816425 81.499353
2026-03-01 0.006124 0.013493 0.033108 0.103004 0.450877 3.467127 150.496522
2026-03-08 0.005622 0.012561 0.031406 0.100616 0.463103 3.939272 244.600506
2026-03-15 0.004990 0.011219 0.028294 0.091890 0.433034 3.866529 288.749072
2026-03-22 0.004686 0.010695 0.027537 0.092407 0.461197 4.647915 573.582659